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  • engineer
    01-03 12:31 AM
    Writer, Shuja Nawaz
    http://www.shujanawaz.com/index.php?mod=about


    Brinksmanship in South Asia: A Dangerous Scenario
    December 26, 2008 10:32 | PERMALINK (http://www.shujanawaz.com/blog/brinksmanship-in-south-asia-a-dangerous-scenario)
    Reports of military movement to the India-Pakistan border must raise alarums in Washington DC. The last thing that the incoming Obama administration wants is a firestorm in South Asia. There cannot be a limited war in the subcontinent, given the imbalance of forces between India and Pakistan. Any Indian attack across the border into Pakistan will likely be met with a full scale response from Pakistan. Yet, the rhetoric that seemed to have cooled down after the immediate aftermath of the Mumbai attacks is rising again. It was exactly this kind of aggressive posturing and public statements that led to the 1971 conflict between these two neighbors. Pakistan has relied in the past on international intervention to prevent war. It worked, except in 1971 when the US and other powers let India invade East Pakistan and lead to the birth of Bangladesh. What makes the current situation especially dangerous is that both are now nuclear weapon states with anywhere up to150 nuclear bombs in their arsenal. If India and Pakistan go to war, the world will lose. Big time. By putting conventional military pressure on Pakistan, is India calling what it perceives to be Pakistan�s bluff under the belief that the United Sates will force nuclear restraint on Pakistan?
    The early evidence after the Mumbai terrorist attack pointed to the absence of the Pakistan government�s involvement in the attack. Indeed, the government of Pakistan seemed to bend over backwards to accommodate and understand Indian anger at the tragedy. But, in the weeks since then, as domestic political pressure mounted on the Indian government to do more, talk has turned to the use of surgical strikes or other means to teach Pakistan a lesson. It was in India�s own interest to strengthen the ability of the fledgling civilian government of Pakistan to move against the militancy within the country. But it seems to have opted for threats to attack Pakistan, threats that, if followed up by actions, may well derail the process of civilianization and democratization in that country. India must recognize the constraints under which Pakistan operates. It cannot fight on two fronts. And it lacks the geographic depth to take the risk of leaving its eastern borders undefended at a time when India has been practicing its emerging Cold Start strategy in the border opposite Kasur. Under this strategy, up to four Integrated Battle Groups could move rapidly across the border and occupy a strategic chunk of Pakistani territory up to the outskirts of Lahore in a �limited war�.
    For Pakistan, there is no concept of �limited war�. Any war with India is seen as a total war, for survival. It risks losing everything the moment India crosses its border, and will likely react by attacking India in force at a point of its own choosing under its own Offensive-Defensive strategy. (That is probably why it is moving some of its Strike Force infantry divisions back from the Afghan border to the Indian one.) As the battles escalate, Indian�s numerical and weapon superiority will become critical. If no external intervention takes place quickly, Pakistan will then be left with the �poison pill� defence of its nuclear weapons.
    The consequences of such action are unimaginable for both countries and the world...
    The NRDC (Natural Resources Defense Council) conducted an analysis of the consequences of nuclear war in South Asia a year before the last stand-off in 2002. Under two scenarios, one (with a Princeton University team) studied the results of five air bursts over each country�s major cities and the other (done by the NRDC alone) with 24 ground explosions. The results were horrifying to say the least: 2.8 million dead, 1.5 million seriously injured, and 3.4 million slightly injured in the first case. Under the second scenario involving an Indian nuclear attack on eight major Pakistani cities and Pakistan�s attack on seven major Indian cities:
    NRDC calculated that 22.1 million people in India and Pakistan would be exposed to lethal radiation doses of 600 rem or more in the first two days after the attack. Another 8 million people would receive a radiation dose of 100 to 600 rem, causing severe radiation sickness and potentially death, especially for the very young, old or infirm. NRDC calculates that as many as 30 million people would be threatened by the fallout from the attack, roughly divided between the two countries.
    Besides fallout, blast and fire would cause substantial destruction within roughly a mile-and-a-half of the bomb craters. NRDC estimates that 8.1 million people live within this radius of destruction.
    Studies by Richard Turco, Alan Robock, and Brian Toon in 2006 and 2008 on the climate change impact of a regional nuclear war between these two South Asian rivals, were based on the use of 100 Hiroshima-sized nuclear devices of 15 kiloton each. The ensuing nuclear explosions would set 15 major cities in the subcontinent on fire and hurl five million tonnes of soot 80 kilometers into the air. This would deplete ozone levels in the atmosphere up to 40 per cent in the mid-latitudes that �could have huge effects on human health and on terrestrial, aquatic and marine ecosystems.� More important, the smoke and sot would cool the northern hemisphere by several degrees, disrupting the climate (shortening growing seasons, etc.) and creating massive agricultural failure for several years. The whole world would suffer the consequences.
    An Indo-Pakistan war will not cure the cancer of religious militancy that afflicts both countries today. Rather, India and Pakistan risk jeopardizing not only their own economic futures but also that of the world by talking themselves into a conflict. The world cannot afford to let that happen. The Indian and Pakistani governments can step back from the brink by withdrawing their forces from their common border and going back to quiet diplomacy to resolve their differences. The United States and other friends of both countries can act as honest brokers by publicly urging both to do just that before this simmering feud starts to boil over.
    This piece appeared in The Huffington Post, 26 December 2008 (http://www.shujanawaz.com//)





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  • addsf345
    12-18 05:06 PM
    Originally Posted by razis123
    be it Palestine, Iraq, Afghanistan Somalia,Darfur,Chechnya, Kashmir, Gujarat... everywhere muslims are killed for being muslims...noone goes to cuba,srilanka,north korea,zimbawe or whereever for watever reason...just imagine God forbid someone comes into your house, occupies it, kills your family, your brothers and sisters in front of you and kicks you out of your home and you are seeing no hope of justice... you wont stand outside your home sending flowers like munna bhai's gandhigiri.. trust me you will become a terrorist.

    by your explanation, what should hindus in india do? they were attacked, temples destroyed, forcefully converted, killed, lost land to islamic republics like pakistand and bangladesh??? Please read this on wikipedia...Thankfully not whole world thinks like you do.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muslim_conquest_in_the_Indian_subcontinent

    An estimate of the number of people killed, based on the Muslim chronicles and demographic calculations, was done by K.S. Lal in his book Growth of Muslim Population in Medieval India, who claimed that between 1000 CE and 1500 CE, the population of Hindus decreased by 80 million. His work has come under criticism by historians such as Simon Digby (School of Oriental and African Studies) and the Marxist historian Irfan Habib for its agenda and lack of accurate data in pre-census times. Lal has responded to these criticisms in later works. Historians such as Will Durant contend that Islam spread through violence.[5][6] Sir Jadunath Sarkar contends that that several Muslim invaders were waging a systematic jihad against Hindus in India to the effect that "Every device short of massacre in cold blood was resorted to in order to convert heathen subjects."[7] In particular the records kept by al-Utbi, Mahmud al-Ghazni's secretary, in the Tarikh-i-Yamini document several episodes of bloody military campaigns.[citation needed] Hindus who converted to Islam however were not completely immune to persecution due to the Caste system among South Asian Muslims in India established by Ziauddin al-Barani in the Fatawa-i Jahandari.[8], where they were regarded as an "Ajlaf" caste and subjected to discrimination by the "Ashraf" castes[9].





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  • pmb76
    07-14 04:29 AM
    IV core,

    Pani's letter completely undermines IV's initiatives. IV has to move in one single direction not in 10. If this guy wants to send a letter he should not be allowed to send it using IV's banner. Please request this guy to either stop this letter campaign or NOT use IV's name. I do not understand how jokers like Pani are tolerated by IV. IV must disown this guy and his dangerous campaign.





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  • h1techSlave
    04-15 10:11 AM
    Economists generally say 6 months of expenses.

    If you work in a hot technology with generally good job prospects I would say 3-4 months is good enough. Lot of people under estimate how much money they need on a monthly basis. My suggestion would be to calculate (last 12 months of your total after tax income - your actual savings amount) / 3. This is the amount you actually spend in an average 4 months period last year. Do not go by adding up various expenses. That might lead to missing various payments and would result in a lower monthly expense figure.

    But it would be a good idea to start life insurance for the principal money earner of the family and a will by both parents.

    We are looking to buy a house and the bank is asking us to put down 10%. How much money is considered safe to have after down-payment if we are buying a home. I know it depends on the situation, but I would like some estimates/ball-park figures.



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  • abcdgc
    12-27 09:20 AM
    Alisa, you sound like rational Pakistani who can think and judge the things by oneself. I wish % like you people increase in Pakistan.

    Marphad,

    Please don't get fooled again by this kind of sweet talk. This is the same kind of talk that Musharraf did with Americans after 9/11. But no terrorist camps were dismantled and Pakistan continues to provide safe heaven to taliban and bin ladin. Every time US or India or someone else is about to take a stern action, the most clever wing of Pakistan kicks-in, to do this sweet talk. I don't trust this sweet but filthy expression anymore. Pakistan is not even ready to prosecute LeT, JeM leaders. Just 1 guy is under "house arrest" for Mumbai attacks. If Pakistan were serious, there would be more real action on the ground. Instead, the government is trying to find reasons not to take any action. Alisa is just saying the same thing, justifying the inaction of Pakistani government. The bottom line is, Pakistan is not serious about dismantling the terrorism infrastructure. ISI continues to fund and supply arms to all terror outfits. Every terrorist attack also presents an opportunity to get ride of the bad guys. Civilized society is befooled by this sweet talk every time there is a possibility of some action. Since 9/11, the terror outfits have grown within Pakistan, even though world community thinks that Pakistan is "ally" in "war on terror". Bull Shit. India must conduct surgical strikes and should not let its guard down. The only other option is, wait for the next attack by terrorist coming from Pakistan. Next time it will someone else's brother or mother. I don't want it to be my brother or my mother. And so I demand action from Indian government RIGHT NOW. I have given piece of my mind by calling and writing emails & letters to news anchors who even remotely suggested against attacking pakistan. I see their tone change. I have also called the government and written letters demanding action, and will continue to do so till there is response to the war waged on us. And I request you and others do the same.





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  • mallu
    01-28 02:38 AM
    There has never been a mention of the H1b visas approved and those that do not fall under the quota....

    This guy is just after his ratings nothing else...his book explicitly quotes that H1b and L1 visa holders do not pay any taxes and transfer all the money home. (CNN has a few hundreds of them on H1b)

    When there was a huge debate on illegal immigration he quoted he was all for legal immigration. The only way one can legally immigrate with skills is via H1b visa and he is against it.

    When the debate is on illegal immigration, the former immigrants and their descendants will chant "We love legal immigrants". When the focus shifts to legal immigration, suddenly they don't want any immigration. Their argument is "If bus is full , we don't need more passengers" . Likewise USA is "full" with former immigrants and their descendants , so don't need more immigration.
    If supply is squeezed somehow, the demand will increase. But poor fellows, if businesses can't get qualified numbers , it will accelerate outsourcing.



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  • satishku_2000
    05-16 06:39 PM
    Nowadays LCA becomes just a documentation and it does not prevent displacement or any abuse. It may be true that DOL may not have authority and resource to prevent abuse.


    You did not answer my question about why some one with permanent labor certificate has to go thru the process of advertisement process for H1B renewal?

    In my case DOL labor took almost 3 years to certify my labor certificate which states that I am not displacing any american worker. I think 3 years is a good time to find whether I am displacing american worker or not.

    This law simply goes too far in the name of preventing abuse. I just dont get why someone working for same company and whose GC petition is pending(GC labor approved) has to prove every year that he is not displacing an american worker.





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  • unitednations
    08-03 08:18 PM
    huh? another shocker (atleast for me): what is the issue with using AC21 to go from a consulting job to a permanent one? As long as title and duties say the same. If I am consulting at a client site, cant I use AC21 to join them fulltime 6 months down the line? My duties etc remain exactly the same.


    Remember when I was mentioning ability to pay and what happened in 2004.

    Some people with approved 140's from 2002 and 2003 had the reopened by uscis and they started applying current day memorandum and current day adjudication standards to cases which were already approved. A number of people had their 140's revoked by uscis stating they were approved in error.

    Chennai consulate and California service center both treat the staff augmentation companies as not the employer in "common law" context. That is; you are not in their control. that is why they always ask for letter/contract from the end client.

    California service center was just starting to treat the 140's in the same manner before they stopped doing 140's. They were denying/revoking 140's because a company did not have a full time and permanent job for them.

    Now;texas and nebraska do not do this. But with all of these legal wranglings; complaints by people; h-1b denials, consulate 221g's, etc.; eventually this could have an impact.

    Let's say you are working at Client A. You work for B. You don't like their ratio; so you move to employer C, who gives you a better ratio but you still work at client A. Then you hop over to employer D because they process labors in a fast state or it is a substitute labor. Now; you file 140/485 and after six months you decide to join client A using AC21. Now; how would you justify this. From common law point of view; B, C and D are not your employer even though D is the one filing greencard for you. We'll see as time goes on when people start leaving en masse and uscis starts picking up and detecting these patterns as to what type of impact it will have.



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  • SunnySurya
    08-05 01:49 PM
    I think he knows quite a bit about the immigration rules. He raised a point that it is merely a guidance. What it means that it can be contested and challenged...unlike if it were a law.

    With all due respect, I totaly disagree with original poster. probably, he needs to know more about immigration rules..





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  • gc_aspirant_prasad
    09-26 08:47 AM
    I know it may be for the greater good to see Prez Obama in the white house.
    However, I am fairly confident that the condition of Employment Based immigrants - people facing years & years of retrogression will be a sorry one.
    As much as I would love to be part of this American experiment, I have to think of stability.
    Under Prez Obama if Sen Durbin & his friends revive CIR 2007 type discussions it is end of the road for folks like me waiting for over 5 years for the US GC.
    It would be wise to move to Canada or Australia / New Zealand for most of the EB folks where we can have the stability and freedom to be all that we can be and do all that we can do.
    I have exercised my personal preference for the Big White North & have already applied for the Permanent Residence in Canada. I am also in talks with angel investors in Ottawa such that I can incorporate & start a product development outfit up there.



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  • gotgc?
    12-17 10:46 PM
    It is true that 99.99% of Muslims are not terrorists. But 99.99% of World's hardcore terrorists are Muslims.

    It is very true..and it is fact...why is that all terrorists are muslims...something is wrong ...muslims need to come forward....





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  • gcdreamer05
    03-24 08:06 AM
    Hello,

    I had similar calls two times from IO so far...first to ask for documents (which I sent last month) and second on past Saturday to ask if I could come to the office to give new fingerprints (as the old ones have expired).

    It is nice to see USCIS becoming more proactive...all the best!

    Pagal did they ask you too for client contract letters ?



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  • prioritydate
    01-10 11:29 AM
    Exactly!! Just like the Europeans had a right to defend themselves against the Native Americans.

    Fortunately for them, they did their ethnic cleansing before the mass media and enlightenment. God bless them for it. Now we can come from far and distant places to get permanent residency into this land.

    Unfortunately for the Israelis, like Benny Morris recently said, they couldn't kill all their Barbarians (the Arabs/Palestinians) in the 1940s. Had they completely ethnically cleansed Israel/Palestine of the Arabs back then, we wouldn't have this Israel/Arab problem today.


    If you talk about history, then we should go back to the days where Muslims invaded and killed innocent people in millions. If you kill some people then it is called jihad, but if someone kill you, then it is barbarism. Palestinians and rest of Muslims should learn to live and let live people. No body wants someone's crazy ideas. Got my point? Further, don't listen to your mullahs!





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  • nogc_noproblem
    08-06 06:46 PM
    A lawyer was on his deathbed in his bedroom, and he called to his wife.

    She rushed in and said, "What is it, honey?"

    He told her to run and get the bible as soon as possible. Being a religious woman, she thought this was a good idea. She ran and got it, prepared to read him his favorite verse or something of the sort. He snatched it from her and began quickly scanning pages, his eyes darting right and left.

    The wife was curious, so she asked, "What are you doing, honey?"

    He shouted "I'm looking for loopholes!"



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  • rbharol
    11-14 09:39 PM
    If he keeps doing this, soon people will know what he is up to and will stop taking him seriously....





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  • xyzgc
    12-25 04:30 PM
    We suffer due to the unfairness of a system that hinges upon the place of your birth! We demand that there be no quotas based on "country of birth" and that we ask for equitable treatment.
    Singling someone out due to his/her "national origin" should be something we backlogged EB2/3 I folks should understand more than others. And yet if someone from Pakistan gets a green card - we gang up on him and are outraged that someone from a terrorist country got it before us!!!! Does that mean we would be ok as long as he got it after us?


    I apologize for singling out Talash. I just got frustrated with the fact that you can come from a small, war-mongering terrorist country and get your gc in a year's time, gloat over it, while our tax money of several years finds its way intothe coffers of the very same nation and we wait patiently for several years to see the green.
    It was misdirected anger and I stand corrected for singling out some one like this but it doesn't make my point completely invalid either.

    I got plenty of red dots after my mere mention of the stupidity of ganging up on the fella... red dots are ok... it was the messages that came along with that were offensive - traitor , paki pork, etc - I just deleted my posts after that and stopped commenting on that particular thread.


    I never hurled insults at others and never intended to - you should see the offline messages people left me and you will be equally surprised educated people can use such a horrible language! I'm quite sure several others didn't do that as well. Most folks have been logical and consistent in their posts.
    I gave reds because I got reds - I didn't insult anyone at all. And I'm sure there are many others like me, who didn't participate in this dirty name calling but posted their views openly.


    There is nothing wrong with discussing the history of India and Pakistan, nothing woring in discussing organized vs. unorganized religion, nothing wrong with pointing out the the flaws in Islam or any other religion - The problem is that such discussions always end up with insults hurled at each other. While we may start with the noble intention of having a civil discussion about these issues - every thread like this ends up with offensive remarks that drives people away. The simple question then becomes - is it worth it? Is this the place to do it? Would such a thread be allowed to continue on Ron Gotcher's website? I hope the moderators of this site realize that inaction on their part seems like they condone this type of behavior.


    Why are you "singling" out this particular thread?

    Haven't you seen enough bickering, shouting, name calling on other threads, which are supposedly, solely focused on addressing immigration issues.
    How many threads have you seen not ending up in flaming at each others? Nearly, in every thread that is related to immigration, people jump at each others throats. Otherwise, there are threads which post useless visa bulletin predictions (I've done it myself).
    And what have you done to stop it, may I ask?:(


    All the red dots coming my way are more than welcome... just a small request about the insults .... please be brave enough to post them publicy!
    So let us now go back to solving all the controversial theological, anthropological and geopolitical issues. Let us continue to demand for fairness and an immigration system blind to our country of birth - but make sure we point out other people's national origin... no wonder the most anti-immigration people are generally the most recent immigrants.

    Agreed.



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  • unitednations
    03-26 04:45 PM
    UN - As you are also a beneficiary of AC21 - what is your take on wrongful denials of 485 for AC21 cases that need to be resolved by MTR? Is it a training issue?

    The issues of straight 485 denials have been going on for some time. It is a training issue/money making issue (ie., motion to roepen fees).

    Recently; I haven't seen USCIS denying 485's based on company revoking 140; they are sending request for evidence.

    Every person 485 that was denied inappropriately who was eligible for ac21 all eventually had their cases reopened. Problem is if you are outside the country when it happens and you have to use AP to come back in or are renewing your ead or in process of renewing EAD then that is when things become tricky and the anxiety starts.

    Once again; every person I know had their cases reopened; they just had some bumps on the road waiting for it to be reopened.





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  • puddonhead
    06-05 01:32 PM
    >> First off, a house is really both an investment and a home.

    If you look at the historical rate of appreciation vs. the risks involved - I think you will come to the same conclusion as I did - that it is a lousy investment in mature markets like US.

    The scenario is different in India. I believe (based on my assumptions and calculations) that the risk/reward ratio is much more favourable there.

    The intangible value of a "home" is the only reason I will ever "buy" a house here - because it is a lousy investment. For me - that tipping point is when I can afford a starter home for cash (it is a differnet topic that I will take a mortgage even then. If there is any problem with the title - the mortgage company is there to fight for me - so it acts as a second layer of insurance). It should not be as far off as you think if you are ready to settle for a small starter home AND actively invest (rather than spend) the principal payment you would have paid towards your mortgage every month.





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  • WaitingYaar
    04-05 05:12 PM
    jung.lee

    The analysis is interesting, but this much amount has already been written off considering 100% of option ARM, and alt-ARM will fail. Furthermore, it is worth noting that if one is buying the property for personal consumption or for invetment. If for invetment, then I agree with your assesment, but if you are buying for yourself, it always a good time :-) Home sweet home!! Also always wise to pay your own mortgage than anyone else's.

    Also, if the housing goes down further, you would see a much broader threat to the economy, so i feel that all will be done to contain it. We are currently at 2004 prices, and in some areas escalations on the foreclosed properties are are being seen.... So it tells something, that buyers who have been holding the cash are started to look around. But the inventory being so high that it may some sometime. However, the interest rates may not be friendly for long because of the inflation threat and considering the risks associated with the mortgages. So, this time with low rates, and low house pricess may not last long since these two things are generally inversly proportional!!





    rajuram
    07-15 01:11 AM
    EB3 India guys, please send out the letter. We need to get our concerns out there. May be some one will listen. Please send a copy to Zoe Lofergen also.

    Only the squeaking wheel gets the oil. Wake up, please. Otherwise we all will be still waiting while the others are getting their citizenship!!!!





    puddonhead
    06-26 04:25 PM
    Have you accounted for the increase in rent (not rent controlled) every year? Mortgage on the other hand is fixed for 30 years!

    If you work based on the historic values of price and rent appreciation - it should not make any difference.

    How? Just like the "fundamental" of any stocks price is how much money that company makes - the fundamental of a home price is the rent it can fetch in the market. So the home price and the rent will always increase at approximately the same rate.

    With that assumption, you will benefit from a "fixed mortgage payment" only if your home price/rent increases > inflation. Based on historic numbers - I doubt we can assume this to be the case.

    The period "right now" - is an aberration. I would caution everybody against using our intuitions honed in the debt fueled binge between 1980 to now. Cold hard numbers based on some quantifiable assumptions are better bets.

    >> People are not going to sell. They will just say put rather than take a 40% loss.

    Until inflation eats away at their "wealth" in the form of a house. :-). Markets are far more powerful and has a lot more tools at its disposal than people in denial.